The 87th Academy Awards will air this Sunday, February 22nd, with Birdman, Boyhood and The Grand Budapest Hotel as three of the top contenders. Our editor gives a rundown on who he thinks will and should win each of the top categories.
Best Picture
For the first time in a while, every one of the eight Best Picture nominees has a solid chance of picking up the top trophy at the show; Birdman and Boyhood are the universally acclaimed frontrunners, but with the number of nominations they have American Sniper, The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Imitation Game can’t be counted out either. Additionally, Selma has the controversy of its many snubs behind it, and The Theory of Everything and Whiplash are both strong all-round contenders that could pull off an upset as well. With the recent addition of a preferential ballot at the Oscars, in which voters rank the films rather than choosing their favorite, a film could theoretically win with many second- and third-place votes could upset over a film with lots of first-place support.
Still, it’s realistically a race between Birdman and Boyhood, and it’d be shocking to see anything else win. I’m betting on Boyhood despite Birdman‘s domination of recent guild awards (DGA, PGA, SAG), because Oscar voters usually like to go for the film with the most heart for its top prize while rewarding more technical and artistic films below-the-line. And who can argue the heart behind Boyhood? It’s a masterpiece unlike anything we’ve seen in the industry before, and giving it Best Picture would just feel so right. In a perfect world, The Grand Budapest Hotel would win - it was by far my favorite film of the year - but I don’t think voters are prepared to give a comedy the top prize in such a competitive year.
Probably: Boyhood
Possibly: Birdman
Preferably: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Wish They Were Here: Foxcatcher, Gone Girl, Interstellar, and Nightcrawler replacing the four biopics and a ninth place for Under the Skin.
A second opinion from Joe Morgan:
“I would personally like for American Sniper win the Oscar for best picture. This isn’t because I particularly like the film or agree with its ideological message, but I liked the way it caused a furore in the press and provoked such heated debate regarding America’s role in the Iraq War. I think it would be controversial if American Sniper were to win because it may be seen as an endorsement of the film’s message, but it would at least lead to the continuation of what is still a very important debate regarding America’s military and how it is portrayed in Hollywood film.
I think that the Oscar is likely to go either to The Theory of Everything or Selma. Both seem very Oscar friendly, less controversial and would be ultimately well deserved. I will be astounded if The Grand Budapest Hotel wins. I like much of Wes Anderson’s work but found his latest film slightly irritating in its ultra-quirkiness.”
Best Director
Like Best Picture, Best Director seems to be a race between Birdman‘s Alejandro G. Iñarrítu and Boyhood‘s Richard Linklater. I think it’s a fifty-fifty race, but after winning DGA it’s hard to see Iñarrítu not winning, especially considering he’s the more technically impressive director of the two, a good trend in picking recent winners. Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game), Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel) and Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) can thank their lucky stars that they got a nomination, but besides maybe Tyldum I think they all fully deserved it.
If it were up to me I’d give the award to Linklater, mainly because he was able to hold such a great project together for a long stretch of time, while updating the project as it went along by meeting with each of the actors and finding out about their lives and thoughts. But a win for Iñarrítu would be fine with me too; he’s one of my favorite current directors, with Babel being one of my favorite all-time films (he should’ve beat even Martin Scorsese for The Departed in for Best Director in 2007).
Probably: Alejandro G. Iñarrítu, Birdman
Possibly: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Preferably: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Wish They Were Here: David Fincher for Gone Girl instead of Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game.
Best Actor
The only acting race that isn’t pretty much certain at this point, Best Actor has been a hard one to call throughout the year; that Jake Gyllenhaal, David Oyelowo, Ralph Fiennes and Timothy Spall all missed out is proof of the great acting that was on display in 2014. Still, we’re stuck with 5 excellent candidates, with Michael Keaton in Birdman and Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything holding the best chances to win the trophy. After SAG and BAFTA it’s hard to see Redmayne losing, but don’t count out Keaton, who has made one of the best comebacks in recent memory.
Bradley Cooper could also make a surprise upset, as American Sniper has made a smash at the box office after its late release and he hasn’t had the chance to compete against any of his fellow nominees yet. Could the meat-and-potatoes faction of the Academy vote for him as a surprise upset? It’s very possible - think Adrien Brody (The Pianist) coming up from behind while Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt) and Daniel Day Lewis (Gangs of New York) battled it out at all the precursor awards.
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) and Steve Carell (Foxcatcher) are all but out of the race at this point, but their performances shouldn’t go without acclaim. Steve Carell was especially impressive as wrestling-obsessed megalomaniac John DuPont, turning the gimmick of a fake nose into a fully-committed, eerie character. I’d love to see him win it, and Joe Morgan agrees: “his performance as John Du Pont was excellent and demonstrated a versatility to the actor that we had never seen before.”
Probably: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Possibly:Michael Keaton, Birdman or Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Preferably: Michael Keaton of the those with a chance, but Steve Carell for a shocking upset
Wish They Were Here: Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler) and Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel) instead of Cooper & Cumberbatch.
Best Actress
Julianne Moore, overdue an Oscar for over a decade, has had this one in the bag since Still Alice was announced, and after winning practically every precursor award it’s near impossible to imagine her losing. She was fine in Still Alice, though it’s disappointing that a film so underwhelming is the one that will finally win her her golden statue. Rosamund Pike was the real best actress of the year, stealing every blood-soaked scene of the haunting Gone Girl.
Marion Cotillard, Felicity Jones and Reese Witherspoon all have an outside chance of pulling off an upset, but it’d be one of the biggest upsets in the history of the show. I’d honestly like to see any of them win over Moore - she’s one of the best living actresses but this isn’t the part that she deserves her career-highlight award for. Don’t get me wrong, she excels in the role, but it isn’t one we’ll be remembering 20, 10, or even 1 year from now.
Probably: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Possibly:Any of the others, if someone broke into the vote-counting room and changed the data.
Preferably: Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Wish They Were Here: Essie Davis (The Babadook) replacing Julianne Moore.
Best Supporting Actress
This is another locked category, but Patricia Arquette will be a very deserving Oscar winner for her outstanding role in Boyhood. It’s for me the best performance of those nominated, though I’d like to have seen Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year and Interstellar), Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer) and/or Rene Russo (Nightcrawler) join the lineup.
Of all the nominees, I actually think that, depressingly, Meryl Streep has a chance of picking up her fourth Oscar for Into the Woods, but luckily for variety’s sake that’s a very unlikely prospect. Streep was great in Into the Woods, but were we expecting anything less? Keira Knightley, Emma Stone and Laura Dern all have earned places here, though I’m surprised the latter two got in with so little screen time. For them, the nomination is likely the reward.
Probably: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Possibly: Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Preferably: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Wish They Were Here: Jessica Chastain (Interstellar), Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer) and Rene Russo (Nightcrawler) instead of Meryl Streep, Emma Stone and Laura Dern.
Best Supporting Actor
Also an easy prediction (a somewhat unfortunate trend recently), the Best Supporting Actor trophy will most likely fall into the hands of JK Simmons on Oscar night. It’s absolutely deserved, too, with Simmons’ tour-de-force turn as a strict music teacher serving as one of the most shockingly good performances of the year. Simmons owns Whiplash, riding off of the film’s incredible energy and continuing to excite, humor and terrify us with each ridiculous scene. It’s all been leading up to this for Simmons, who gives the most JK Simmons-y performance in the history of cinema.
I don’t think anyone else has much of a chance of winning, but I expect Edward Norton (Birdman), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) and Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher) to all pick up a few deserved votes here and there. Had Simmons been out of the picture, this could’ve been one of the most competitive years in the history of this category, with all three of those actors giving career-high performances. Robert Duvall was also entertaining enough to earn his nomination for The Judge, but the film didn’t live up to his scene-stealing gravitas.
Probably: JK Simmons, Whiplash
Possibly: Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Preferably: JK Simmons, Whiplash
Wish They Were Here: A long shot, but I’d loved to have seen some love for two of 2014’s great comedy villains: Zac Efron in Neighbors and Will Ferrell in The LEGO Movie. That said, Duvall is the only one I could stomach taking out of this stacked category.
Other Categories
The so-called “below-the-line” categories are a bit harder to predict since they aren’t as big a talking point until just before the actual ceremony, but I have some thoughts on the films I think will win them anyway. Here are the rest of my predictions and preferences:
Best Original Screenplay - Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel / Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay - Will Win: Whiplash (any of them could win, though Whiplash benefits from originality) / Should Win: Whiplash
Best Cinematography - Will Win: Birdman / Should Win: Mr. Turner
Best Costume Design - Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel / Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Editing - Will Win: Whiplash (any of them could win) / Should Win: Whiplash
Best Makeup & Hairstyling - Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel / Should Win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Best Production Design - Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel / Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Sound Editing - Will Win: American Sniper / Should Win: Interstellar
Best Sound Mixing - Will Win: Whiplash / Should Win: Birdman
Best Visual Effects - Will Win: Interstellar / Should Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Best Animated Feature - Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2, though an upset by The Tale of The Princess Kaguya is possible. I’m still furious about the LEGO snub, by the way.
Best Animated Short - Will Win: Looks like Feast is the frontrunner.
Best Documentary Feature - Will Win: Citizenfour / Should Win: Haven’t seen them all, but loved Citizenfour, Virunga, and Finding Vivian Maier.
Best Documentary Short - Will Win: Looks like Crisis Hotline is the frontrunner.
Best Live Action Short - Since The Phone Call is by Cinema Jam members James Lucas and Mat Kirkby it’s hard to predict this category without a bit of bias.
Stay tuned to the Oscars on Sunday night to see if my predictions are right, or if I get them totally wrong! In the UK, the ceremony will start at (yikes) 1:30am on Sunday night, and will be shown on the special Sky Oscars channel for Sky TV users.
